Falling Gas Prices Ease the Burden on Consumers – CO₂ Price Will Have Little Impact in 2026

• Gas prices ease in 2025: New customers have been paying around 19 percent less since the beginning of the year.
• LNG terminals relieve the market: Higher supply has a dampening effect on prices.
• Kehler: “The CO₂ price will only have a moderate impact on gas prices in 2026.”

Gas prices for end consumers have been on a downward trend for months. Following the crisis of recent years, prices for household customers have eased significantly over the course of this year – a trend that is likely to continue in 2026.

At the beginning of 2025, gas prices for new customers temporarily stood at just over 10 cents per kilowatt-hour (peaking in mid-February at 10.35 ct/kWh).Since April, prices have consistently remained below this threshold and, according to data from the comparison portal Verivox, are currently just under 8 cents per kilowatt-hour (lowest value on 24 December at 7.99 ct/kWh). Overall, gas prices have fallen by around 1.9 cents per kilowatt-hour since the beginning of the year, corresponding to a decline of about 19 percent and providing noticeable relief for consumers.

Against this backdrop, the CO₂ price in the national emissions trading system will also have only a limited impact on gas prices next year. For 2026, an auction-based system with a price corridor of €55 to €65 per tonne of CO₂ is stipulated by law. Even at the upper end of this corridor, the gas price for end consumers would increase by a maximum of around 0.2 cents per kilowatt-hour. Moreover, today’s gas price already includes a CO₂ price of €55 per tonne.

“The gas market has stabilized significantly, and consumers are benefiting from this development,” says Dr. Timm Kehler, CEO of the Gas and Hydrogen Industry Association. “The CO₂ price is clearly capped in 2026 and will only moderately affect gas prices. It is foreseeable that price reductions will outweigh any potential additional costs. Since gas has a lower CO₂ footprint than other fossil energy sources, changes in the CO₂ price carry less weight than, for example, at the fuel pump. And one thing is clear: anyone purchasing climate-neutral gas such as biomethane does not have to pay a CO₂ price at all.”

The positive price outlook is further supported by rising supply on global markets. According to the IEA report Gas 2025, LNG export capacity is expected to increase by around 300 billion cubic meters by 2030. LNG terminals along Germany’s coasts secure access to global supply, strengthen market liquidity, and thus have a price-dampening effect. They make a significant contribution to cushioning price fluctuations and sustainably increasing security of supply. This also points to continued stable and predictable price developments in the coming year.